China's recent progress in tackling carbon emissions is a ray of hope in the fight against climate change. But here's where it gets controversial: China's CO2 emissions have been flat or even declining for the past 18 months, according to a recent analysis. This is a significant development, as China is the world's largest polluter, and its actions have a massive impact on global efforts to combat climate change.
The analysis, conducted by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (Crea), reveals that China's rapid deployment of renewable energy sources, particularly solar and wind power, has played a crucial role in keeping its energy sector emissions stable, despite an increase in electricity demand. In the third quarter of this year, solar power generation grew by an impressive 46%, while wind power increased by 11%.
China's commitment to renewable energy is evident in its solar capacity additions. In the first nine months of 2025, the country added a staggering 240GW of solar capacity and 61GW of wind power, putting it on course to break another renewable energy record in 2025. Last year, China installed an unprecedented 333GW of solar power, surpassing the combined installations of the rest of the world.
The findings come at a critical time, as global leaders gather in Brazil for Cop30, a conference taking place against the backdrop of increasing urgency to address the climate crisis. Notably, China's president, Xi Jinping, did not attend the leaders' summit at the UN climate conference, but the Chinese delegation is present for the talks. This absence raises questions about China's commitment to global climate action, especially considering that Xi's US counterpart, Donald Trump, also chose not to attend and has not sent a negotiation team.
Last week, UN Secretary-General António Guterres emphasized the dire consequences of failing to limit global heating to 1.5C, describing it as a "moral failure and deadly negligence." His words highlight the importance of global cooperation and the need for all countries, including China, to step up their efforts.
Despite the encouraging progress, there are still areas of concern. Lauri Myllyvirta, the lead analyst at Crea, cautions that China's overall emissions trend for 2025 could still show a small rise, depending on the last quarter's performance. However, if the trend of previous years holds true, with the fastest growth in electricity demand and associated emissions occurring during the summer months, China's CO2 emissions could record a decline for the full year.
China has set ambitious dual carbon goals: peak emissions by 2030 and net neutrality by 2060. In September 2025, the country released its latest climate targets, aiming to cut overall greenhouse gas emissions by 7% to 10% of their peak by 2035. While these targets are a step in the right direction, experts argue that they are not sufficient to prevent global catastrophe and fall short of the 30% cut that is both feasible and necessary.
However, China has a history of exceeding expectations when it comes to climate targets. Li Shuo, the director of the China Climate Hub at the Asia Society Policy Institute, suggests that the latest climate targets should be seen as a starting point rather than a ceiling.
While China's overall emissions trend is positive, some sectors are lagging behind in the decarbonization process. Oil demand and emissions in the transport sector decreased by 5% in the third quarter, but there was a 10% growth in other areas, particularly in the production of plastics and other chemicals.
Additionally, China is likely to miss its target for cutting carbon intensity, which refers to CO2 emissions per unit of gross domestic product (GDP). This means that steeper reductions will be necessary for China to achieve its 2030 goal of reducing carbon intensity by 65% compared to 2005 levels.
All eyes are now on China's 15th five-year plan, which will outline the government's priorities and policies for the 2026-2030 period. Although the full text won't be published until next year, Chinese officials have indicated that low-carbon energy systems will be a key focus of the plan.
China's progress in reducing carbon emissions is a promising sign, but there is still much work to be done. As global leaders gather in Brazil, the world watches with anticipation to see if China will continue to lead by example or if its efforts will fall short of the urgent action needed to combat climate change. What are your thoughts on China's role in the global climate crisis? Do you think its actions are enough, or should more be done? Feel free to share your opinions and engage in the discussion below!
