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According to sources, the Liberals' internal numbers suggest the party's majority hopes are fragile
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By Antoine Trépanier
Published Apr 23, 2025
Last updated 2days ago
4 minute read
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YAMACHICHE, QUE — Liberals thought they were riding a wave toward a majority government, largely thanks to Quebec. That’s no longer the case. Sources within the party sense the victory mat is slipping from under their feet.
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The Bloc, whose poll numbers plummeted following the resignation of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and the inauguration of U.S. President Donald Trump, sees an opportunity.
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The party is working feverishly to regain support in the ridings it holds.
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Bloc Leader Yves-François Blanchet said he is very much “on the offence” and that he’s trying to save seats and flip a couple more in the greater Montreal area, while the Liberals “are worried that Isaac Newton may have been right after all and it has stopped going up.”
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According to sources, the Liberals’ internal numbers are not as shiny as the polls suggest, and a majority result is fragile.
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“Everything is extremely volatile in an unprecedented campaign. Everything could still be decided in the coming days. That seems to be true for the Liberals, and it’s true for us,” said Blanchet on Wednesday. “It’s going to be an extraordinarily interesting five days.”
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Meanwhile, the latest Leger poll puts the Liberals 16 points ahead of the Bloc in Quebec.
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The Bloc hasn’t recovered to the same level as the last election, according to Philippe J. Fournier, who runs the polling aggregator 338Canada, but the party is no longer on the floor with only 20 per cent.
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“It looks like they’re back at 25 or 26, and that could make a difference for the Bloc. The Bloc will probably save the day if they can get out the vote,” Philippe J. Fournier told National Post.
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The Liberals believe that 40 of the province’s 78 seats would help them in their quest for a majority government. And they’re not afraid to ask Quebecers directly for help.
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“We know that in Quebec, we have a strong voice to be heard! We know that we are capable of having a majority government because Quebecers will respond,” Liberal candidate and Minister of Foreign Affairs Mélanie Joly chanted in the microphone at a party event Tuesday night.
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She was introducing her boss, Mark Carney, at the end of a long day of campaigning in La Belle Province.
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“Together, let’s make sure we have a Liberal majority government,” Joly added.
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If the Bloc continues to climb in the polls and reaches 30 per cent, this majority would be “compromised,” according to Fournier.
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In 2021, the Liberals won 33 ridings in the province and the Bloc 32. However, last September, the Bloc won a byelection in Montreal, creating a major upset. The Bloc was particularly strong among Francophone voters, while the Liberals dominated in Montreal and among the multicultural electorate.
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“The aggregation sites predict a close fight, but that’s not what we feel on the ground,” Bloc Québécois candidate in Berthier-Maskinongé Yves Perron said.
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Perron seems to havethe edge in a tight race with NDP Ruth Ellen Brosseau, and the Liberal candidate is not too far behind.
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“I don’t really feel any surge (in the Liberal vote),” he said. “People come and argue with me sometimes, saying ‘well, we’ve always voted for the Bloc, but now we’re a little scared.’ It takes a few minutes to explain that if we’re not there, no one speaks for Quebec, and then people understand that very quickly,” he added.
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Bloc candidates constantly repeat that polls don’t tell the whole story. That groundwork remains the key to success.
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That’s exactly what Team Carney and Team Blanchet did on Tuesday.
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Both the red and light blue caravans added kilometres to their odometers throughout Tuesday.
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The Bloc leader started the day in Charlevoix, where he is trying to save a seat from a Conservative surge.
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“We are trying to reach as many people as possible during five weeks, four of which are gone. There’s one left, and more the people hear about us and what we have to say, the best support we get,” Blanchet told reporters.
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Meanwhile, the Liberal leader met with Quebec City Mayor Bruno Marchand in the Old Capital and took pictures in front of the Château Frontenac.
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Old Québec today with good company. pic.twitter.com/iDOc0WoVvj
— Mark Carney (@MarkJCarney) April 22, 2025
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Blanchet then went to Quebec City, while Carney was making an announcement on the protection of Quebec’s identity and economy in the battleground of Trois-Rivières.
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“We (will) always protect Canadian culture, Quebec culture, and we are clear. But it’s the person at the table who will make those determinations and decisions,” said Carney, implying that the Bloc will never be at the table because it can’t mathematically form the government.
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A new stop was added to Blanchet’s itinerary: a metal factory in Yamachiche, not far from Trois-Rivières, to visit a company affected by the U.S. tariffs.
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It seemed as if the two campaigns had exchanged narratives.
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Carney served poutine at the Ben La Bédaine canteen in Granby, then travelled to Saint-Bruno-de-Montarville. Both ridings are held by the Bloc.
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Meanwhile, Blanchet enjoyed a quiet dinner with his team in Repentigny, a stronghold where the Liberals harbour ambitions.
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Carney ended his day in Laval, where hundreds of Liberals were present. Like Joly, he called for a strong and positive mandate. He wore a Montreal Canadiens jersey, just as Blanchet had done the day before in Charlevoix.
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While Blanchet is a Quebec Nordiques fan and Carney is an Edmonton Oilers fan, both are ready to hold their noses and wear the Habs jersey. Because at this stage of the campaign, it might well be a necessity to win this province.
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National Post
atrepanier@postmedia.com
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